You can feel the tremors. A major earthquake is about to disrupt television as we know it.
This year, the piping companies are working hard to replace the old platforms of broadcast, cable, and satellite with Internet portals. Verizon and SBC Communications made major investments to build Internet TV portals. Comcast recently reacted by telling Wall Street about its own Internet TV portal under development and to be fully stocked with programs, movies, interactive features, and a new fangled television search engine. Then Comcast created more buzz with hints of partnership talks with Google and interests in buying AOL’s Internet portal.
Meanwhile, the content companies are trying to break free of the pipe companies. ESPN is leading the charge with its own major Internet portal, branded magazines, radio shows, podcasting, branded phones and services, games alliance (with Electronic Arts,) events with the X-Games and ESPY Award, and Zone restaurants. Change is so prevalent that even the Tiffany Network (CBS) announced a strategic initiative to in its own words “bypass cable”. It is working on an online service for people to watch as an alternative to the evening news.
And of course, Apple is shattering the mold again. While everyone talks, Apple launched its much anticipated video iPod in a content alliance with Disney. You can now watch “Desperate Housewives” and “Lost” for $1.99 an episode. Maybe tomorrow, Pixar and possibly Disney movies will be $3.99 each. It will be a matter of days, before video podcasting takes off. And the latest report has Sony smartly out maneuvering Matsushita (Panasonic and friends) in its next generation DVD fight. Which vision is clairvoyant? Who will buy DVDs at the store, when they can download and watch on their iPod or anywhere in the house through their iMac or Microsoft Media Server?
As content becomes pipe independent, Lifestyle Internet portals like MySpace with social networking at their core will start disrupting the traditional TV portals currently under construction. It is a vision thing. Content and packaging are changing. Viewing is about time, place, and involvement. Essentially, media is becoming personal. Will people be attracted to CBS or some cool news center that speaks to them? If you expect CBS will win, think about what is happening with blogs and you may change your mind. Les Moonves will have to think beyond CNN to keep CBS branded news alive in the long-term. The same goes for all types of television. Interestingly, the niche cable networks are best positioned to win if they move fast. ESPN understands.
If we come back to our monthly topic of measurement, this fun discussion of disruption hits home hard. People-meters measure channel frequencies of “piped” tuning to television sets. The next generation A/P meter is more flexible, measuring content as long as it is wired to the meter. Yet everything we have been talking about involves throwing away the pipe. The Personal People Meter (PPM) is mobile, but requires ambient audio. While this clearly would not capture the earphone prone iPod devices, it certainly casts a wider net. Besides the nasty little requirement of sample cooperation, the PPM concept makes a huge assumption. It requires all content to be coded with audio signatures. This means both programming and commercials. If games and movies are in scope, then they need continuous signatures too. Despite all the fanfare, the PPM crowd is still struggling to get basic television cooperation. The Internet oriented folk of course think these measurement techniques are wrong-headed. They believe that tracking technologies should be designed to monitor interactive communications. Yet, they face similar challenges. Clickstream tracking requires website cooperation and struggles with offline content.
This is why media research is fun!
Maybe the answer is outside the box. Content owners are becoming paranoid about who is using what and how many times. Serious money is being lost through copyright infringements, from file sharing to piracy, and much more is at risk as videos follow music into the digital ether. Maybe media researchers should partner with the Digital Rights Management companies and consortiums to develop technologies that monitor and follow the content and its usage.
